- Market Overview: S&P 500
- Main Video: High Potential Stocks – 31 min
- Conclusion
- Watch List
- New Members: Where To Start & Key Topics
- FAQ Section
1. Market Overview: S&P 500
Click on S&P 500 daily chart to enlarge:
The market is following the path outlined in last week’s newsletter.
This continues to look like further immediate downside potential is the most likely scenario.
The multiple support area that would get hit soon is described in detail in the video!
The vast majority of stocks I went through while doing my research are starting to look like the path of least resistance is now to the downside.
We could witness a final move lower, a ‘last shakeout’ so to speak, before we move higher and print new all-time highs.
The problem with anticipating such a move and putting on aggressive trades before the market confirms that scenario is obvious. The markets could be rolling over and move much lower instead of following the bullish scenario.
I continue to remain defensive as I do not want to run the risk of getting trapped. Also keep in mind that even if the bullish scenario unfolds, not all stocks are going to be able to follow along. Many will be left behind. Focus on, and only buy leading stocks. They will move higher ahead of the indices and will massively outperform as soon as the selling pressure with the markets eases.
For now, I am maintaing exposure to precious metals. I am only going to become super aggressive with PMs if they provide me with an additional 10-20% profit cushion.
2. Main Video: High Potential Stocks – 1 h 08 min
Stocks covered in the video:
- Choppy Markets With More Downside Potential
—> Staying Defensive —> No Breakout trading
—> Maintaining exposure to Precious Metals —> Early in the trend, trying to sit tight - Stock Review: S&P 500, CRM, AMD, CRON; Relative Strength: FSLY PAYC, COUP, OLED; Precious Metals: GLD, SLV, AU, SA, GOLD, AXU, AG, WDOFF
- High Potential Stocks: Not looking to initiate new positions
3. Conclusion
I continue to stay defensive and as a position trader I continue to avoid breakout trading in a choppy / downtrending market environment.
Precious metals is the one sector I am currently approaching with a ‘position trader mentality’. As it is early in the trend I am trying my best to ‘sit tight’, as Jesse Livermore would put it. When it is early in a trend try not to get shaken out.
4. Watch List
Watch list link with the best charts the market has to offer right now:
Use it to dig deeper, replenish your own watch list and ultimately come up with your own ideas.
Free website: www.tischendorf.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Tischendorf
5. New Members: Where To Start & Key Topics
Stop losses – TL 3
https://members.tischendorf.com/2015/12/12/tischendorf-letter-issue-3-what-invalidates-a-trade/
Idealized Optimal Chart Pattern + Pareto’s Principle – TL 46
https://members.tischendorf.com/2016/10/09/tischendorf-letter-issue-46-patience-and-discipline/
Margin – TL 53
https://members.tischendorf.com/2016/11/27/tischendorf-letter-issue-53-melt-up-potential/
Consolidation Patterns – TL 54
https://members.tischendorf.com/2016/12/05/tischendorf-letter-issue-54-monitoring-consolidation-patterns/
Trading Psychology: Fear – ‘That First Dive’ – TL 63
https://members.tischendorf.com/2017/02/05/tischendorf-letter-issue-63-this-is-a-bull-market-keep-it-simple/
Concentrated vs. Diversified Portfolio – TL 84
https://members.tischendorf.com/2017/07/03/tischendorf-letter-issue-84-sector-rotation-continues/
Drawdown & Gain Required To Break Even – TL 146
https://members.tischendorf.com/2018/10/13/tischendorf-letter-issue-146-waiting-for-volatility-to-calm-down/
6. FAQ Section
Q: Do you run a model portfolio? Do you send out trade alerts?
A: There is no model portfolio and I do not provide any kind of buy or sell signals or alerts. I also do not publicly keep track of my personal trades. I’ve been actively trading for 20+ years and I have come to understand that an educational newsletter is in the best interest of members. The focus is on teaching traders ‘How to fish’.
Q: When is the newsletter published?
A: There is no fixed schedule. Depending on how busy I am, the newsletter can be published as early as Friday or late at night on Sunday.
Q: How do I know if the most recent newsletter is already available?
A: There is absolutely nothing you need to do. Whenever a newsletter is published you will get an email notification including a link to the current issue.
Q: A video is not loading or has stopped playing. What should I do?
A: Simply hit the refresh or reload button in your browser. That usually solves the problem. The videos are hosted on Vimeo. So if there is a playback issue with Vimeo, there is nothing I can do. These type of issues are very rare. You can always check Vimeo’s status page to see if they are experiencing technical problems: https://www.vimeostatus.com/
Q: How do you scan for stocks?
A: My main scan is a very simple scan looking for stocks with above average volume. There are no secrets involved. It is all about discipline. The key is to do it every day. I use stockcharts.com to run the scan. If you decide to sign up for their chart service please use my email mail@tischendorf.com as a referral. I will then get a free month. Here is the code or scan expression I use: [type = stock] and and [daily volume > 300000] and [daily close < 150] and [daily volume > daily sma(50,daily volume) * 3] and [daily close > daily sma(50,daily close)] and [daily close > 0.55]